RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
—A Review of the First Year of the China Affair—
Bureau of Information, Department of Foreign Affairs
INTERNATIONAL relations centering in the China Affair have been complicated and eventful. During the past year, complications have arisen from the relationships of the Powers to Japan and China, particularly from the existence of rights and interests of third Powers in the latter country. Their respective positions and interests have been reflected in their expressions of goodwill to Japan, of sympathy and aid to China, or their adherence to neutrality. On the whole, the atmosphere prevailing in Western countries, except in Germany and Italy, appears to be one of sympathy toward China, due to her propaganda against Japan and to her reliance on Western Powers. By these means China has successfully fanned anti-Japanese sentiment that has persisted throughout the several years since the Manchurian Incident. Actually, countries such as the Soviet Union and France are aiding China openly, as is widely known, either by supplying arms or by despatching aviators and technicians to that country. Still, it is to be noted that the world situation has now undergone a significant change, as compared with that at the time of the Manchurian Incident when the League of Nations passed the resolution against Japan by 42 votes to one, in that Germany and Italy, two of the great Powers, are in full support of Japan's cause.
The development of the Affair, which began as the North China Incident, and which resulted in the extension of the areas of hostilities from North China and Mongolia to Central China, in the blockade by the Japanese Navy of the whole Chinese coast to Chinese vessels, and in the occupation by Japan of principal cities, including Nanking, Peking, Tientsin, Shanghai, Tsingtao, and Hsuchow, remains fresh in memory of students of international affairs. The fall of Hsuchow with the consequent severance of the Lung-Hai Railway is to be remembered particularly as the beginning of a new and important development in which the days of Hankow, the second capital of the anti-Japanese régime under General Chiang Kai-shek, are numbered.
Together with the development of the Affair, various important
diplomatic problems between Japan and the Powers have taken place one after another. The list of problems rendering the international situation unfavourable to Japan includes: the proposal for neutralization of Shanghai, the convocation of the Assembly of the League of Nations, and the conference of the Nine Power Treaty Signatories, all of which aimed at curbing Japan's advance through the formation of a united front by the Powers; positive steps taken by the Soviet Union to aid China, one of which was the conclusion of the Sino-Soviet Agreement; the aggravation of the feeling against Japan in Western countries on account of the bombing of Nanking and Canton. Furthermore, occurrences of such unfortunate incidents as the injury of Sir Hughe Knatchbull-Hugessen, the then British Ambassador to China, the bombing of the United States gunboat Panay and of the British gunboat Ladybird, and the taking over of the Chinese customs at Shanghai, Tientsin and other places by the new Governments in North and Central China, and problems regarding the International Settlement in Shanghai have made the situation extremely tangled.
The European turmoil, at the same time, has not remained altogether unrelated to the Far Eastern situation. In the Anglo-French, Anglo-Italian, Anglo-German and French-Italian conversations and conferences held with great frequency, Far Eastern problems have been taken up along with those of the European continent. Here is illustrated the nature and scope of the Sino-Japanese conflict and how it is vitally affecting the rest of the world.
Actions of the Powers
Actions taken by the Powers, particularly by Great Britain, the Soviet Union, France, Germany, Italy and the United States, have in turn reacted upon the development of the present Affair in diverse degrees and directions, according to their respective relationships with Japan, China or both. In this sense, those of Great Britain, which has the largest interests in China and is specially related to the Nationalist Government or to General Chiang Kai-shek himself, are predominantly important in sizing up the whole situation. Movements of the Soviet Union, the Power behind the anti-Japanese united front and Nationalist-Communist collaboration and which is positively aiding the Nationalist régime with the sinister design of bolshevizing all of China, are similarly worthy of scrutiny. The attitude of France which has come to occupy the leading place in the popular front movement since the conclusion of the French-Soviet alliance and which has large interests in South
China has also to be watched. On the other hand, actions in support of Japan on the part of Germany and Italy, which are participating in the Tripartite Agreement against the Comintern, and movements of the United States, which is consistently adhering to the policy of neutrality while showing delicate internal fluctuations around neutrality legislation are, in a different sense, to be followed closely.
The Attitude of Britain
Let us review these movements in detail. The attitude of Great Britain following the outbreak of hostilities was extremely cautious, as it happened that preliminary negotiations for readjusting the Anglo-Japanese relations were then taking place. She invited the United States, France and the Soviet Union jointly to offer their good offices for preventing aggravation of the Incident and consequently for its early settlement. However, faced with the Japanese determination to refuse the interference of third Powers, Great Britain assumed for a time the position of watchful waiting. In the meanwhile, hostilities spread to the Shanghai district. England then proposed the neutralization of that part of China. When Nanking was bombed by the Japanese air forces and when China tried to restrain Japanese military operations by appealing to the League, the foremost member of the Geneva organization took a positive step for supporting China at its Assembly and brought the matter before the conference of the Nine Power Signatories.
These British moves resulted in nothing but the failure of the Assembly at Geneva and of the conference at Brussels due to the determined attitude of Japan backed by the support of Germany and Italy. Still, the British endeavours for formation of a united front against Japan were not dropped. Subsequently came the proposal for Anglo-American joint action with regard to the Panay and Ladybird incidents and the suggestion to create an investigation commission concerning the Japanese air raids on Canton.
In response to these policies of the Government, public opinion in Great Britain suddenly began to militate against Japan with the bombing of Nanking and reached its greatest pitch at the time of the Ladybird incident, giving rise to large-scale anti-Japanese boycott movements not only in the United Kingdom but throughout the Dominions and colonies. This sentiment against Japan calmed down somewhat with the speedy settlement of the unfortunate incident, and it became possible for the representatives of the two Governments to open negotiations regarding the Settlement
and Customs questions with a fair degree of smoothness. This change in attitude may be taken as a manifestation of utilitarian British diplomacy.
Soviet and French Attitudes
The attitude of the Soviet Union toward China is totally different in nature from the attitudes of other countries; her aid is ultimately directed not toward General Chiang Kai-shek nor the Nationalist Government but toward the Chinese Communists and Red China. Even after the departure of Ambassador Bogomoloff, who is reported to have been recalled because of having gone too far in aiding China and who left the Sino-Soviet Agreement as a parting present, positive steps in that direction were continued by the Soviet Government. In reality, this Government has been sending to China large numbers of aviators, army officers and technical experts as well as aeroplanes and various types of arms.
From the first, the Soviet Union chose to interpret the Japanese action in China as one of aggression and construed it as one of consolidating Japanese positions in case of a Russo-Japanese war. Accordingly, she has been trying to exhaust the strength of Japan by influencing China to resort to long-term resistance while working consistently for the creation of a Red China.
It has generally been thought impossible for the Moscow Government to launch any positive external action, in view of the growing unrest created by the series of purges throughout the most important sections of the nation, beginning with the Red Army. Contrary to this view, however, the Soviet aid to China has been somewhat bold and open. In spite of the report that Mr. Sun Fo's visit to Moscow failed of result, the question of a secret military agreement has recently come to the fore, while Nationalist-Communist collaboration has been considerably strengthened as if to endorse that rumour. Under these circumstances, importance must increasingly be attached to movements of the Soviet Union.
Public opinion in France which is tied to the Soviet Union by the bond of the popular front was seriously against Japan in the early stages of hostilities. No active moves, however, have been made beyond the selling of arms by the French Government which is fully occupied with critical developments in the European situation. As a matter of fact, so long as the arena of hostilities was confined to North and Central China, and so long as French interests were not affected directly, there was no ground for the Government at Paris to take any positive steps against the Japanese programme.
Yet, arms imported through French Indo-China, which became the most important route for the purpose after the Japanese blockade of the entire Chinese coast, totalled such volumes as to form a substantial aid to the Chinese fighting strength. Of late, furthermore, the French aid to China has been intensified as hostilities spread southward and the Japanese bombing of Canton increased in severity and frequency. French loans to the Nationalist Government have been reported repeatedly.
American Neutrality
Reaction of the United States Government to the present conflict was first voiced by Mr. Cordell Hull, Secretary of State, who made it clear that the United States cannot remain indifferent to such conflict. Despite clamorous voices for the invocation of the Neutrality Act, however, the State Department took an extremely cautious attitude. When public opinion gradually became strained against Japan, the Department, in September (1937), took the measure of prohibiting the transport of arms by Government owned vessels. Then, on October 5th and 6th, as if in response to the resolution at the League Assembly denouncing Japan, the Chicago speech of President Roosevelt and the statement of the State Department successively expressed the view that Japan was acting on the Asiatic Continent in violation of the Nine Power Treaty and the Kellog-Briand [sic] Pact. Thus the United States gave the impression that she had been converted from the principle of neutrality to that of intervention.
That tendency in the United States proved to be short-lived. As the Nine Power Conference proved fruitless, and as voices recommending the maintenance of neutrality remained unchanged, this policy was continued. The United States refused to accept the invitation extended by Great Britain for joint action against Japan with the occurrence of the Panay incident, although American public sentiment was inclining in the same direction.
Side by side with this firm stand for neutrality, it must not be overlooked that there exists in American opinion a strong tendency for sympathizing with China. With regard to air raids on Canton, for example, the question of invoking the Neutrality Act has again come to the fore, and in that connection the discontinuance of the selling of aeroplanes to Japan has been voiced strongly—these measures are reported to have been partially carried out already. Besides, the anti-Japanese boycott movement which was started with the occurrence of the Panay incident appears to be regaining
strength and intensity. The future of the American attitude, therefore, is not at all easy to predict.
The Tokyo-Rome-Berlin Axis
Germany and Italy are two countries which are giving full support to Japan on the basis of the Tokyo-Rome-Berlin Axis. The first indication of Germany's attitude was that, on the outbreak of the North China Incident, the German Ambassador to the United States informed the State Department of Germany's stand for neutrality. Subsequently, however, she made clear her attitude of supporting Japan in connection with the League Assembly and the Nine Power Conference. The attitude of Italy has been to support Japan in such a thoroughgoing way as to take comprehensive measures for prohibiting the export of arms to China. In particular, since her participation in the Anti-Comintern Agreement in November last year, she has increasingly strengthened her stand for Japan.
That the Japanese-German-Italian Agreement against the Comintern was published without warning while the Nine Power Conference was in session constituted a violent shock to the Powers. Furthermore, recognition of Manchoukuo by Germany and Italy has greatly consolidated Japan's international position. The recall of German military advisers to the Nationalist Government, headed by General Alexander von Falkenhausen, which was ordered by the German Government almost simultaneously with the fall of Hsuchow has likewise created wide repercussions not only in China but also in different parts of the world.
During these months of intricate international relations, there was one opportunity for the Nationalist Government to make peace with Japan; but this was lost when that Government showed an obstinate, irrational attitude toward the mediation offer of the German Ambassador, Herr Oskar Trautmann. Thereupon, as is widely known, the Japanese Government issued, on January 16th, the statement setting forth its irrevocable determination to deal no longer with the Chiang régime and to fight to the end that it may be taken entirely out of existence. The China Affair, amid complexities of international relations, has now entered its third phase, the phase of long-term hostilities.