Treaties, Laws and Speeches

A STUDY ON THE BIRTH-RATE

INSTITUTE FOR RESEARCH IN THE POPULATION PROBLEM

THE programme for the establishment of a population policy decided on at a recent meeting of the Cabinet Council is aimed at the increase of human resources through the increase of births, decrease of deaths, and improvement in the quality of the population. With regard to the increase of births it is urged that in the next ten years the average age of marriage should be lowered by three years, while the average number of offspring for each married couple should be raised to 5. This naturally gives rise to the questions: What is the average age of marriage at present? What is the average number of offspring for each couple married at that age? Is it possible to increase the number of children to five by hastening marriage by three years? How is fertility affected by occupation, financial position, and educational standards?

These questions may be answered to some extent by the results of the investigations carried out by the Institute for Research in the Population Problem, which are summarized below.

The average age of first marriages for women was 24.156 in 1937 and 24.414 in 1938. Assuming that conceptive activity ceases at 44 years of age, the procreative capacity of wives married at the aforementioned ages lasts about 20 years. The results of the survey by the Institute reveal that wives married at 24 years of age have 4 children on an average during 16 to 20 years of their married life. Even when the duration of marriage is between 21 and 30 years, the average number of offspring is nearly the same, standing at 4.1. But the figures for wives married three years earlier, or at the age of 21, are 4.5 and 5 during the respective periods of married life. As the conceptive activity for wives married at 21 lasts for more than 20 years, it is certain that they can bear 5 children on an average. In the same way the birth-rate among wives married at 20 is 4.7 during 16 to 20 years of married life and 5.4 in 21 to 30 years.

If, therefore, the recent average age of marriage, i.e. 24.41, is

retained or advanced, the average number of offspring can hardly be expected to rise to 5. Even if the average age became earlier, if the practice of deliberate family limitation is widespread, the birth-rate may further fall. Setting aside such other circumstances, it is necessary that the average age at marriage for women should become three years earlier, i.e. 21, in order that the average number of children for each couple may increase to 5. It is, however, extremely difficult to lower the average age of wives at marriage while the husbands' remain as it is, for in Japan the difference in the ages of husband and wife is almost always fixed. The average age of first marriage for wives was 22.87 in 1908 (the first year that such statistics were compiled), which gradually showed an upward tendency until it rose to 24.41 in 1938, while the similar figure for men was 26.81 in 1908, which also increased by degrees till it reached 28.39 in 1938. In any year between 1908 and 1938 the difference in ages of husband and wife was from 3.9 to 4.1 years. Therefore, in order that the average age at marriage for wives may be lowered from 24.4 to about 21 years, that for husbands must also be lowered from 28.4 to about 25 years. The lowering of the average age of marriage of men from 28 to 25 may not in itself contribute so much to the increase of fertility as lowering the wives' age. But it is of great significance as an important factor in lowering women's age at marriage from 24 to 21. For in most cases it is men who take the initiative in marriage, and consequently even if women are ready to be married at 21, marriage cannot be easily hastened unless men are willing to marry at 25.

High Fertility of Farmers

The birth-rate differs according to occupations. Among persons following the same occupations there is also difference in this respect in urban and rural districts. The average number of children for married couples past conceptive activity (i.e. couples with wives over 44 years of age), as classified by occupations and areas, is as follows:

In the above table farmers stand first with an average of 4.98 children, or nearly the same number as urged in the programme for population policy referred to elsewhere. This may be attributed to the high fertility as well as the comparatively early marriage in the agrarian class. Next come the rural wage-earners with an average of 4.36. Figures for the other occupational groups are lower, salaried men in cities accounting for only 3.87. So an increase in the number of children for those groups, especially for the urban salaried class, should be encouraged.

From the point of view of fertility city life is undesirable. Both salaried men and wage-earners in cities are below those in rural districts in birth-rate. If this trend continues, the concentration of population in cities will require special attention. But quite the reverse is the case with the small and middle-class traders and manufacturers, of whom those in rural districts are inferior to those in cities so far as fertility is concerned.

Birth-rate according to Classes

Let us next observe the average number of offspring for married couples past conceptive activity according to their financial positions. The table below gives the number of children for each married couple among salaried men and wage-earners as classified according to the amount of income:

As shown in the table, couples of the lowest class, i.e. those with

incomes of less than 50 yen, head the list, averaging 4.28 children, followed by those drawing income between 100 and 150 yen with 4.26 children. Figures for families receiving less than 300 yen are generally low, while those obtaining more than 300 yen claim more offspring. In short the birth-rate for salaried men and wage-earners is highest at both extremes. It seems that among the intermediate classes there is a tendency to avoid increase of family.

As regards farmers the results are quite different. The number of children for each family classified according to the area under cultivation is as follows:

As the table indicates the birth-rate for the agrarian class is in proportion to the area cultivated by each family—the greater the acreage, the larger the number of children.

Likewise, in the case of small and middle-class tradesmen and manufacturers, the average number of offspring is proportionate to the amount of business profit tax paid by them.

To summarize, the number of offspring among small and middle-class tradesmen and manufacturers gradually increases as their financial position improves, while the salaried class and wage-earners in intermediate financial positions average a comparatively small number of children.

Educational Standards

The following table shows the number of children per married couple classified according to the husband's educational standard and to the duration of marriage.

No. of children per couple, by husband's education:

It may be seen from the above table that the number of children increases as married life is prolonged, regardless of the husband's educational standard. But the rate of increase differs with the educational standards. Within six years of marriage it is nearly the same irrespective of educational standards, while in longer periods it is highest among those who received primary education and lowest among those with college or university education. In the first few years of marriage, couples with higher education may not differ much from those of lower educational standards in their procreative capacity; but, as their average age at marriage is generally higher than the latter, they may naturally have fewer children in the longer duration of married life. However, the fact that the average number of children for those who received college or university education does not easily increase above 2 may not be a matter of fertility alone; that they are chary of family increase must be taken account of. The figures according to the wives' educational standards show the same trend as those according to the husbands'.

Childless Couples

The average number of children for couples with wives past 44 years (the age when conceptive activity ceases) is 4.64, while the percentages of married couples for the numbers of children are as

follows:

Of the total number of married couples 6.76 per cent have only one child, and 7.05, 8.55 and 10.12 per cent claim respectively 2, 3 and 4 children. Those with less than 5 children, i.e. below the average number of offspring, account for 47.03 per cent of the total. Nearly half the total number of couples have more than the average number of children. Thus 41.135 per cent bore from 5 to 8 children, while only 11.62 per cent are blessed with over 9. There are a comparatively large number of sterile or barren couples, amounting to 14.55 per cent. But even in couples past conceptive activity, their age at marriage, especially that of the wife, and the duration of marriage must have had an important bearing on sterility. If these circumstances are taken into consideration in calculating the rate of sterility, the result may be more or less different.

Sterility in Urban and Rural Districts

The percentages of sterility according to occupations and areas are as follows:

As indicated above, the percentage for the salaried class in cities, representing 10.53, is the lowest, with the figure for agricultural families, 13.16, following closely. The urban salaried class average the smallest number of children, but as their percentage of sterility is low, it may be said that there are comparatively few childless couples among them. The birth-rate is generally high and the rate of sterility is remarkably low among farmers. But sterility is highest among the small and middle-class tradesmen and manufacturers in the rural districts, followed by wage-earners in the same areas with 19.50 per cent, which is nearly twice the ratio for the salaried class in cities. What is notable in this connection is that except for farming families the rate of sterility in the occupational groups is higher in rural communities than in cities. Why the rate is higher in rural districts than in cities, and why it is lower among farmers than among families in rural areas following other occupations, are questions yet to be studied.

Average Interval between Marriage and First Childbirth

Lastly the Institute made investigations as to how long it takes on the average from marriage to the birth of the first child, and from the first to the second childbirth. It must be noted that in calculating the duration of marriage the actual, instead of the registered, date of marriage was taken as the basis. Also it generally requires at least 10 months from marriage to the birth of a first child, and from the birth of a first child to that of a second. But taking premature births into account, the minimum interval was estimated at 8 months. If a birth took place within one year, then the interval was fixed at 10 months, and births occurring between one and two years after marriage were regarded as having taken place 18 months thereafter.

The following table shows the intervals required between marriage and the first childbirth and between successive births thereafter among married couples who have passed the period of conceptive activity.

The average interval between marriage and the first childbirth is 29.21 months, or about 2 years and 5 months. It may seem rather too long, but in reality, although there are many couples who have children within one year of marriage, it is not uncommon for children not to be born until several years after marriage. The average periods between the 1st and 2nd children and the 2nd and 3rd are longer, being respectively 36.93 and 37.25 months. But after the 3rd child the intervals between births become slightly shorter, falling below 3 years after the 6th. So among prolific couples the period between births tends to be shorter, though it never comes within the average interval between marriage and first childbirth, i.e. 29.21 months.

The following table gives the percentages of married couples as classified according to the intervals between marriage and first childbirth and between 1st and 2nd children:

The table reveals that the couples who gave birth to the first child within two years of marriage, or at an average interval of 18

months, are largest in number, amounting to 46.55 per cent of the total number of couples surveyed. This means that while the average period from marriage to the birth of the first child is 29.21 months for the total number of married couples, more than 46 per cent of them have their first children 18 months after marriage. Following this 17.26 per cent gave birth 10 months after marriage. So there are more than 63 per cent of married couples who give birth to their first children within one and a half years of marriage. As regards the period between 1st and 2nd children, more than 36 per cent of the couples require 30 months, followed by 25 per cent who take 18 months.

¹ One cho is equal to 2.45 acres